Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios     

Steven K. Rose  Richard Richels  Steve Smith  Keywan Riahi  Jessica Strefler  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):511-525

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.  相似文献   

Economic impacts of alternative greenhouse gas emission metrics: a model-based assessment     

Jessica Strefler  Gunnar Luderer  Tino Aboumahboub  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):319-331

In this paper we study the impact of alternative metrics on short- and long-term multi-gas emission reduction strategies and the associated global and regional economic costs and emissions budgets. We compare global warming potentials with three different time horizons (20, 100, 500 years), global temperature change potential and global cost potentials with and without temperature overshoot. We find that the choice of metric has a relatively small impact on the CO₂ budget compatible with the 2° target and therefore on global costs. However it substantially influences mid-term emission levels of CH₄, which may either rise or decline in the next decades as compared to today’s levels. Though CO₂ budgets are not affected much, we find changes in CO₂ prices which substantially affect regional costs. Lower CO₂ prices lead to more fossil fuel use and therefore higher resource prices on the global market. This increases profits of fossil-fuel exporters. Due to the different weights of non-CO₂ emissions associated with different metrics, there are large differences in nominal CO₂ equivalent budgets, which do not necessarily imply large differences in the budgets of the single gases. This may induce large shifts in emission permit trade, especially in regions where agriculture with its high associated CH₄ emissions plays an important role. Furthermore it makes it important to determine CO₂ equivalence budgets with respect to the chosen metric. Our results suggest that for limiting warming to 2 °C in 2100, the currently used GWP100 performs well in terms of global mitigation costs despite its conceptual simplicity.  相似文献   

The geomorphic character and hydrological function of an upland swamp,Budderoo plateau,southern highlands,NSW, Australia     

Kirstie Fryirs  Jessica Gough  Grant C. Hose 《自然地理学》2014,35(4):313-334

Upland swamps are a form of topogenous mire that occur on the plateau areas of eastern Australia. These systems are well recognized for their ecological value, but little is known about their internal hydrological function and how this relates to their geomorphic structure and evolution. In this study, the geomorphic, sedimentological, and hydrological properties of an intact upland swamp on the Budderoo Plateau NSW are investigated. The geomorphic structure of the swamp is simple, and the sedimentology comprises basal layers of coarse sands, overlain by several layers of organic accumulation up to 3.3?m in thickness. Each of these sedimentary units has different hydrological behaviors (rates of water throughflow and discharge) that drive the overall function of the swamp in response to rainfall of various magnitudes and duration. Four hydrological response types have been identified in the functioning of this swamp. These response types (RT) are characterized by different peaks and recession responses to rainfall. The form of the hydrograph produced is controlled by antecedent water table position and the amount, timing and duration of rainfall. Depending on antecedent moisture conditions, the swamp can operate either as a store for water or as a rapid conduit for water throughflow and overland flow.  相似文献   

Sudden stratospheric warmings and tropospheric blockings in a multi-century simulation of the IPSL-CM5A coupled climate model     

Jessica Vial  Tim J. Osborn  François Lott 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2401-2414

The relation between sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and blocking events is analyzed in a multi-centennial pre-industrial simulation of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled model (IPSL-CM5A), prepared for the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project. The IPSL model captures a fairly realistic distribution of both SSWs and tropospheric blocking events, albeit with a tendency to overestimate the frequency of blocking in the western Pacific and underestimate it in the Euro-Atlantic sector. The 1000-year long simulation reveals statistically significant differences in blocking frequency and duration over the 40-day periods preceding and following the onset of SSWs. More specifically, there is an enhanced blocking frequency over Eurasia before SSWs, followed by an westward displacement of blocking anomalies over the Atlantic region as SSWs evolve and then decline. The frequency of blocking is reduced over the western Pacific sector during the life-cycle of SSWs, while the model simulates no significant relationship with eastern Pacific blocks. Finally, these changes in blocking frequency tend to be associated with a shift in the distribution of blocking lifetime toward longer-lasting blocking events before the onset of SSWs and shorter-lived blocks after the warmings. This study systematically verifies that the results are consistent with the two pictures that (1) blockings produce planetary scale anomalies that can force vertically propagating Rossby waves and then SSWs when the waves break and (2) SSWs affect blockings in return, for instance via the effect they have on the North Atlantic Oscillation.  相似文献   

Facies and flow regimes of sandstone‐hosted columnar intrusions: Insights from the pipes of Kodachrome Basin State Park     

Jessica A. Ross  Jeff Peakall  Gareth M. Keevil 《Sedimentology》2014,61(6):1764-1792

Sandstone‐hosted intrusions are found in a wide variety of environments, but remain poorly understood compared with their mudstone‐hosted counterparts. In particular, they remain largely unrecognized in the subsurface, in part because they are problematic to image in seismic data. This study reports on the facies and fluid flow associated with a 20 000 km³ sandstone intrusion province in Utah, USA. Forming a small portion of this intrusion province, the intrusions cropping out in Kodachrome Basin State Park display a very wide array of facies and morphologies, factors which would make their identification in core a significant challenge. Remobilized sediment is shown to have been injected at least 200 m vertically from its source, with flow prolonged enough to concentrate heavy minerals in placer‐style deposits at the pipe margins. Evidence for lateral pipe migration and for associated broader fluidization regions is also presented. A new approach to estimating flow parameters in injectites is implemented herein, and indicates that previous work has overestimated velocities and flow Reynolds numbers by up to two orders of magnitude. Flow modelling suggests turbulent flow in the pipes that is consistent with field observations of erosive margins and chaotic internal structures. Post‐emplacement, these pipes remained as long‐term fluid conduits, as revealed by their diagenetic history, focussing and facilitating flow of extraformational fluids, despite the relatively high porosity and permeability of the aeolian host strata.  相似文献   

Location of hydrogen atoms in hydronium jarosite     

Henry J. Spratt  Maxim Avdeev  Michael C. Pfrunder  John McMurtrie  Llew Rintoul  Wayde N. Martens 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(7):505-517

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The Exxon and BP oil spills: a comparison of psychosocial impacts     

Duane A. Gill  Liesel A. Ritchie  J. Steven Picou  Jennifer Langhinrichsen-Rohling  Michael A. Long  Jessica W. Shenesey 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1911-1932

We address the research question: ‘Did the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill have similar psychosocial impacts as the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill?’ We answer this question by comparing survey results from a random sample of Cordova, Alaska, residents collected 18 months after the Exxon spill with a random sample of residents in the Alabama coastal counties of Baldwin and south Mobile 1 year after the BP disaster. Analysis revealed similarly high levels of psychological stress for survivors of both disasters. For residents of coastal Alabama, the strongest predictors of psychosocial stress were exposure to oil, ties to renewable resources, concerns about their economic future, worries about air quality, and safety issues regarding seafood harvests in oiled areas. Differences between south Mobile and Baldwin counties were related to the former community’s economic ties to renewable resources and Baldwin County’s dependence on tourism for economic sustainability.  相似文献   

Development of a Default Vapor Intrusion Attenuation Factor for Industrial Buildings     

Bart Eklund  Carly Ricondo  Helen Artz-Patton  Jessica Milose  Chi-Wah Wong 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2023,43(1):35-43

An investigation at a major industrial facility in the Midwestern United States provides insights regarding the amount of attenuation of sub-surface vapors occurring at industrial buildings. The buildings at the facility were ranked in terms of vapor intrusion potential and testing began in October 2016 and is ongoing. Results have been evaluated for data collected at 718 unique locations across 77 buildings. A total of 1646 sample pairs (sub-slab and indoor air) have been collected and analyzed for 65 analytes, resulting in a total of 106,990 data pairs. As many as 49 sample pairs were collected within a given building during a single sampling event and up to 11 rounds of seasonal testing have been performed at selected buildings. Seasonal variability in sub-slab soil-gas concentrations was found to be negligible. Data analysis was performed to look for data trends across the entire data set and identify inter-building comparisons. This data evaluation focused on individual volatile organic compounds (e.g., tetrachloroethylene, trichloroethylene) present in the sub-slab soil gas at concentrations exceeding 1000 μg/m³. A total of 157 building-specific attenuation coefficients (α) were evaluated. This evaluation demonstrated that large industrial buildings have a much greater attenuation than that assumed for single-family residential buildings. All attenuation coefficient values were lower than 0.03, which is the standard regulatory default for non-residential buildings. The median value was 9.3E-05 and the 95% upper confidence limit was 2.7E-04. There is some evidence of lower attenuation under wintertime conditions. The data suggests that the default attenuation factor of 0.03 over-predicts indoor air impacts at this industrial facility by at least two orders of magnitude.  相似文献   

Emergent characteristics of rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale     

Jessica Benjamin  Nick J. Rosser  Matthew J. Brain 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):2773-2787

High-resolution rockfall inventories captured at a regional scale are scarce. This is partly owing to difficulties in measuring the range of possible rockfall volumes with sufficient accuracy and completeness, and at a scale exceeding the influence of localized controls. This paucity of data restricts our ability to abstract patterns of erosion, identify long-term changes in behaviour and assess how rockfalls respond to changes in rock mass structural and environmental conditions. We have addressed this by developing a workflow that is tailored to monitoring rockfalls and the resulting cliff retreat continuously (in space), in three-dimensional (3D) and over large spatial scales (>10⁴ m). We tested our approach by analysing rockfall activity along 20.5 km of coastal cliffs in North Yorkshire (UK), in what we understand to be the first multi-temporal detection of rockfalls at a regional scale. We show that rockfall magnitude–frequency relationships, which often underpin predictive models of erosion, are highly sensitive to the spatial extent of monitoring. Variations in rockfall shape with volume also imply a systemic shift in the underlying mechanisms of detachment with scale, leading us to question the validity of applying a single probabilistic model to the full range of rockfalls observed here. Finally, our data emphasize the importance of cliff retreat as an episodic process. Going forwards, there will a pressing need to understand and model the erosional response of such coastlines to rising global sea levels as well as projected changes to winds, tides, wave climates, precipitation and storm events. The methodologies and data presented here are fundamental to achieving this, marking a step-change in our ability to understand the competing effects of different processes in determining the magnitude and frequency of rockfall activity and ultimately meaning that we are better placed to investigate relationships between process and form/erosion at critical, regional scales. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献